SunTrust Banks Inc. (NYSE: STI) and Regions Financial Corp. (NYSE: RF) Remain Likely Targets of M & A Activity

In June of 2009, CreditSights issued a report that listed SunTrust (STI) and Regions Bank (RF) as the top two franchises in terms of merger attractiveness once banks exited the U.S. government’s Troubled Asset Resolution Program (TARP).

“In general, we view the more ‘critical mass’ regional bank franchises such as SunTrust, Regions, and Fifth Third (FITB) as being more attractive than smaller targets, despite their identified capital need and well-known credit quality issues.”

According to a Wall St. Journal report, that time may be coming soon. An article in the Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS) is considering another major acquisition in the United States and is hunting for a retail bank that would give it more deposits and extend the presence of its Barclays Capital unit.

The bank, in response to potential changes in banking regulation, has designated an internal team to assess possible targets, the newspaper said. Still, Barclays isn’t in talks with any businesses in the U.S. and no deal is imminent, the Journal’s report said.

In a similar vein, Royal Bank of Canada (RY) is interested in U.S. banks with $10 billion in assets or more to add to its consumer lending business, executive James Westlake told Bloomberg News this week.

The financial crisis triggered a jump in unemployment in the U.S., denting demand for loans among consumers and businesses. That could drive consolidation as the banking industry adjusts, said Nancy Bush, president of bank research firm NAB Research, in a recent interview.

Regions climbed 7.5% to $7.43 and SunTrust rose 4% to $26.86.

An increase in M&A activity received some support from a recent article on MarketWatch. Jason Goldberg, a bank analyst at Barclays Capital in New York, said stocks are surging – in part – due to banks, like J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), US Bancorp (USB) and PNC Financial (PNC) having captured market share and improved their franchises, through low-priced acquisition of struggling rivals.

“That’s not captured by the market fully yet,” Goldberg said.

However, Goldberg cautioned that investors have “under-appreciated how much those playing defense have damaged their businesses.”

One way to gauge this is to look at assets per share. Falling assets suggest banks are making fewer loans and losing customers, reducing the potential for future profit.

Since the second quarter of 2007, assets per share have dropped more than 30% at SunTrust and Regions Financial, Barclays Capital data show.